Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Cole KoepkeAssists1
- Casey MittelstadtPoints1
Sharks- Lucas CarlssonGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Lucas CarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Barclay Goodrow Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (36), Lucas Carlsson (1)1–3
- P316:37Lucas Carlsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (23), Macklin Celebrini (31)1–2
- P216:50Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (6)1–1
- P22:13William Eklund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (30), Luca Cagnoni (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:13William Eklund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (30), Luca Cagnoni (1)BOS 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 49% → 67% +18SJ 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P216:50Casey Mittelstadt Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (6)BOS 1 – 1 SJ · BOS 28% → 51% +22BOS 28% → 51%+22 pts
- P316:37Lucas Carlsson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (23), Macklin Celebrini (31)BOS 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 50% → 94% +44SJ 50% → 94%+44 pts
- P319:10Barclay Goodrow Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (36), Lucas Carlsson (1)BOS 1 – 3 SJ · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / SJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- SJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −5 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–22 | Road vs home | 10–2432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–38 | 41–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 33–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.