Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Marco KasperPoints1
Scoring summary
- P22:12Morgan Geekie Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (51), Mason Lohrei (25)1–2
- P20:53Lucas Raymond Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (33), Patrick Kane (33)0–2
- P15:37Marco Kasper Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Marco Kasper Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 1 DET · DET 64% → 77% +13DET 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P20:53Lucas Raymond Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (33), Patrick Kane (33)BOS 0 – 2 DET · DET 78% → 89% +11DET 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P22:12Morgan Geekie Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (51), Mason Lohrei (25)BOS 1 – 2 DET · BOS 11% → 22% +11BOS 11% → 22%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DET 65%
- ML BOS +175 / DET -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- DET: Elo 58.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -186
- BOS +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +61 Elo | DET 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 48.7%24th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–25 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–41 | 42–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.