Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists2
- Jackson LaCombePoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:46Morgan Geekie Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (30)2–6
- P312:25Mason McTavish Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–6
- P34:02Leo Carlsson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (26)1–5
- P218:45Cutter Gauthier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (15)1–4
- P217:57Jackson LaCombe Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P216:20David Pastrnak Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (15), Elias Lindholm (25)1–2
- P213:58Nikita Nesterenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P117:33Leo Carlsson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (14), Drew Helleson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:33Leo Carlsson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (14), Drew Helleson (8)BOS 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 55% → 71% +16ANA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P213:58Nikita Nesterenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 74% → 89% +14ANA 74% → 89%+14 pts
- P216:20David Pastrnak Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (15), Elias Lindholm (25)BOS 1 – 2 ANA · BOS 10% → 25% +14BOS 10% → 25%+14 pts
- P217:57Jackson LaCombe Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 76% → 90% +15ANA 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P218:45Cutter Gauthier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (15)BOS 1 – 4 ANA · ANA 91% → 97% +7ANA 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 56%
- ML BOS +120 / ANA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ANA: Elo 50.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +5 Elo | ANA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–24 | Road vs home | 16–1824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–40 | 48–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 45–20 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 27–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.