Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:55Jackson Blake Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (30)1–5
- P219:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (27), Dylan Strome (49)1–4
- P29:27Logan Stankoven Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (15)0–4
- P113:21Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (36), Sebastian Aho (42)0–3
- P110:11Jackson Blake Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (35)0–2
- P16:14Sean Walker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:14Sean Walker Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneWSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 65% → 78% +13CAR 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P110:11Jackson Blake Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (35)WSH 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 78% → 88% +10CAR 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P113:21Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (36), Sebastian Aho (42)WSH 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 94% +6CAR 88% → 94%+6 pts
- P29:27Logan Stankoven Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (15)WSH 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P219:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (27), Dylan Strome (49)WSH 1 – 4 CAR · WSH <1% → 2% +1WSH <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML WSH +180 / CAR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.2%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -191
- WSH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +79 Elo | CAR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3224–12 | Road vs home | 29–93rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–30 | 35–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 32–35 |
| Underdog | 24–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 30–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.