Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Morgan GeekieAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:13David Pastrnak Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (17), Pavel Zacha (31)4–3
- P314:46Tom Wilson Goal (32) Deflected, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (44), Alex Ovechkin (27)4–2
- P310:37Dylan Strome Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (36), Martin Fehérváry (20)3–2
- P217:12David Pastrnak Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (16), Mason Lohrei (26)2–2
- P26:05Vinni Lettieri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (6)2–1
- P115:43Alex Ovechkin Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (48), John Carlson (42)2–0
- P113:32Nic Dowd Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:32Nic Dowd Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (11)WSH 1 – 0 BOS · WSH 65% → 79% +14WSH 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P115:43Alex Ovechkin Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (48), John Carlson (42)WSH 2 – 0 BOS · WSH 79% → 89% +10WSH 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P26:05Vinni Lettieri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (6)WSH 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 10% → 21% +11BOS 10% → 21%+11 pts
- P217:12David Pastrnak Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (16), Mason Lohrei (26)WSH 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 20% → 39% +20BOS 20% → 39%+20 pts
- P310:37Dylan Strome Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (36), Martin Fehérváry (20)WSH 3 – 2 BOS · WSH 57% → 86% +30WSH 57% → 86%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML WSH -225 / BOS +190
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -201
- BOS +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 2.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −4 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +44 Elo | WSH 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 1st of 3223–12 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–29 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 24–7 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.