New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Pierre EngvallGoals2
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Pierre EngvallPoints2
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Tyson JostAssists2
- Tyson JostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:14Seth Jarvis Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (41)4–6
- P39:19Dmitry Orlov Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (26), Tyson Jost (4)4–5
- P34:05Anders Lee Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (27), Kyle Palmieri (24)4–4
- P217:29Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (40), Jaccob Slavin (18)3–4
- P28:35Sebastian Aho Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (34), Taylor Hall (21)3–3
- P21:37Pierre Engvall Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P111:27Kyle Palmieri Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (27), Bo Horvat (26)2–2
- P16:10Pierre Engvall Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (19)1–2
- P14:54Logan Stankoven Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (21)0–2
- P14:41Mark Jankowski Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (18), Tyson Jost (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:37Pierre Engvall Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 3 – 2 CAR · NYI 30% → 47% +17NYI 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P28:35Sebastian Aho Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (34), Taylor Hall (21)NYI 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 49% → 68% +19CAR 49% → 68%+19 pts
- P217:29Seth Jarvis Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (40), Jaccob Slavin (18)NYI 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 66% → 84% +18CAR 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P34:05Anders Lee Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (27), Kyle Palmieri (24)NYI 4 – 4 CAR · NYI 15% → 37% +22NYI 15% → 37%+22 pts
- P39:19Dmitry Orlov Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (26), Tyson Jost (4)NYI 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 61% → 87% +26CAR 61% → 87%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 75%
- ML NYI +280 / CAR -350
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 69.1%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -296
- NYI +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −4 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +140 Elo | CAR 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 28–93rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–38 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 31–35 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 29–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–7 CAR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Jan 25CAR 2 @ NYI 3Picked CAR 66%Miss
- Dec 17NYI 0 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 7CAR 3 @ NYI 4Picked CAR 64%Miss
- Apr 30NYI 3 @ CAR 6PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 2 @ NYI 3PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 3 @ NYI 2PlayoffsPicked NYI 52%Miss
- Apr 22NYI 3 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit
- Apr 20NYI 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 57%Hit