Calgary Flames at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints3
Islanders- Kyle MacLeanGoals1
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:53Nazem Kadri Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (18)4–3
- P317:38Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (17), Kevin Bahl (15)3–3
- P317:09Kyle MacLean Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (22), Noah Dobson (26)2–3
- P26:03Matt Coronato Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (28), Rasmus Andersson (16)2–2
- P117:41Marc Gatcomb Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (21), Noah Dobson (25)1–2
- P110:46Bo Horvat Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (11), Simon Holmstrom (21)1–1
- P10:36Matt Coronato Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:41Marc Gatcomb Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (21), Noah Dobson (25)CGY 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 56% → 72% +16NYI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P26:03Matt Coronato Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (28), Rasmus Andersson (16)CGY 2 – 2 NYI · CGY 27% → 45% +18CGY 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P317:09Kyle MacLean Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (22), Noah Dobson (26)CGY 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 96% +44NYI 52% → 96%+44 pts
- P317:38Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (17), Kevin Bahl (15)CGY 3 – 3 NYI · CGY 3% → 49% +46CGY 3% → 49%+46 pts
- OT3:53Nazem Kadri Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (18)CGY 4 – 3 NYI · CGY 49% → >99% +51CGY 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML CGY +125 / NYI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 60.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +15 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +72 Elo | NYI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 21st of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 17–1616th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–34 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–41 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.