Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Nazem Kadri Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P316:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P315:40Daniil Miromanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (19), Joel Farabee (13)3–3
- P36:50Connor Zary Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (19), Joel Hanley (5)2–3
- P219:32Paul Cotter Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Brenden Dillon (12)1–3
- P211:58Matt Coronato Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (26), Morgan Frost (18)1–2
- P25:25Erik Haula Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (17)0–2
- P117:09Nico Hischier Goal (29) Wrap-around, assists: Stefan Noesen (17), Johnathan Kovacevic (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:09Nico Hischier Goal (29) Wrap-around, assists: Stefan Noesen (17), Johnathan Kovacevic (16)CGY 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 60% → 75% +15NJ 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P219:32Paul Cotter Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Brenden Dillon (12)CGY 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 79% → 92% +14NJ 79% → 92%+14 pts
- P36:50Connor Zary Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (19), Joel Hanley (5)CGY 2 – 3 NJ · CGY 5% → 18% +13CGY 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P315:40Daniil Miromanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (19), Joel Farabee (13)CGY 3 – 3 NJ · CGY 8% → 47% +39CGY 8% → 47%+39 pts
- P316:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 4 – 3 NJ · CGY 47% → 93% +46CGY 47% → 93%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 61%
- ML CGY +150 / NJ -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NJ: Elo 61.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +84 Elo | NJ 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 51.7%7th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3213–20 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–34 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–41 | 25–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.