New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Marc GatcombGoals1
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists1
- Ryan PulockPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:46Jake Guentzel Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (76), Victor Hedman (46)3–5
- P38:47Anthony DeAngelo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (23), Adam Pelech (18)3–4
- P37:47Marc Gatcomb Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P35:58Ryan Pulock Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (23), Adam Boqvist (10)1–4
- P219:43Brayden Point Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (75), Brandon Hagel (48)0–4
- P117:57Brayden Point Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (25), Nikita Kucherov (74)0–3
- P17:31Nick Perbix Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P12:02Nikita Kucherov Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (45), Jake Guentzel (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:02Nikita Kucherov Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (45), Jake Guentzel (35)NYI 0 – 1 TB · TB 64% → 77% +13TB 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P17:31Nick Perbix Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 0 – 2 TB · TB 77% → 87% +10TB 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P117:57Brayden Point Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (25), Nikita Kucherov (74)NYI 0 – 3 TB · TB 88% → 95% +7TB 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P37:47Marc Gatcomb Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 2 – 4 TB · NYI <1% → 4% +3NYI <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P38:47Anthony DeAngelo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (23), Adam Pelech (18)NYI 3 – 4 TB · NYI 3% → 16% +13NYI 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML NYI +170 / TB -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 63.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -180
- NYI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −23 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +95 Elo | TB 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.7%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 26–106th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–37 | 38–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 28–24 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.