Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals2
- Drew O'ConnorAssists2
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints3
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Casey CizikasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Kiefer Sherwood Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (17), Drew O'Connor (14)5–2
- P31:05Teddy Blueger Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (25), Drew O'Connor (13)4–2
- P219:37Derek Forbort Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19), Pius Suter (16)3–2
- P213:59Aatu Raty Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (22), Kiefer Sherwood (15)2–2
- P29:00Anthony DeAngelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (8)1–2
- P25:35Casey Cizikas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (25)1–1
- P22:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (52), Filip Hronek (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:39Kiefer Sherwood Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (52), Filip Hronek (24)VAN 1 – 0 NYI · VAN 48% → 66% +18VAN 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P25:35Casey Cizikas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (25)VAN 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 33% → 52% +19NYI 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P29:00Anthony DeAngelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (8)VAN 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 52% → 71% +19NYI 52% → 71%+19 pts
- P213:59Aatu Raty Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Pettersson (22), Kiefer Sherwood (15)VAN 2 – 2 NYI · VAN 28% → 49% +21VAN 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P219:37Derek Forbort Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (19), Pius Suter (16)VAN 3 – 2 NYI · VAN 49% → 72% +24VAN 49% → 72%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 52%
- ML VAN +100 / NYI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +6 Elo | NYI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–18 | Road vs home | 17–1823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–39 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.