Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals2
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P319:24Conor Garland Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Pius Suter (15), Jake DeBrusk (18)3–3
- P313:25Erik Haula Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brian Dumoulin (18)2–3
- P311:47Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (7), Nils Aman (5)2–2
- P311:02Timo Meier Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (13), Nico Hischier (27)1–2
- P210:24Timo Meier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (14), Jesper Bratt (62)1–1
- P110:09Pius Suter Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:24Timo Meier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (14), Jesper Bratt (62)VAN 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 35% → 55% +20NJ 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P311:02Timo Meier Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (13), Nico Hischier (27)VAN 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 84% +32NJ 53% → 84%+32 pts
- P311:47Jonathan Lekkerimäki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (7), Nils Aman (5)VAN 2 – 2 NJ · VAN 15% → 47% +33VAN 15% → 47%+33 pts
- P313:25Erik Haula Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brian Dumoulin (18)VAN 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 88% +35NJ 52% → 88%+35 pts
- P319:24Conor Garland Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Pius Suter (15), Jake DeBrusk (18)VAN 3 – 3 NJ · VAN <1% → 49% +49VAN <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML VAN +125 / NJ -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +7 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +41 Elo | NJ 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 3217–18 | Road vs home | 16–1724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–39 | 29–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 23–36 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 26–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.