Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Nils AmanAssists2
- Nils AmanPoints2
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:43J.T. Miller Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (46)3–5
- P315:47Jonny Brodzinski Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (25), Carson Soucy (9)3–4
- P315:10Brock Boeser Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (17)3–3
- P312:40K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (29), Will Borgen (8)2–3
- P311:22Drew O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Aman (4), Victor Mancini (6)2–2
- P31:39Jonny Brodzinski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (38), Alexis Lafrenière (24)1–2
- P211:03Adam Fox Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (12), Brennan Othmann (1)1–1
- P111:51Dakota Joshua Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (51), Nils Aman (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:39Jonny Brodzinski Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (38), Alexis Lafrenière (24)VAN 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 56% → 79% +23NYR 56% → 79%+23 pts
- P311:22Drew O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Aman (4), Victor Mancini (6)VAN 2 – 2 NYR · VAN 15% → 46% +32VAN 15% → 46%+32 pts
- P312:40K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (29), Will Borgen (8)VAN 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 53% → 87% +34NYR 53% → 87%+34 pts
- P315:10Brock Boeser Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (17)VAN 3 – 3 NYR · VAN 9% → 47% +38VAN 9% → 47%+38 pts
- P315:47Jonny Brodzinski Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (25), Carson Soucy (9)VAN 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 53% → 93% +40NYR 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 60%
- ML VAN +140 / NYR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -149
- VAN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +51 Elo | NYR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3217–17 | Road vs home | 16–2026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–38 | 28–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–36 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.