Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists2
- Sean MonahanPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Adam BoqvistAssists2
- Adam BoqvistPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Adam Fantilli Goal Backhand1–0
- P312:56Kirill Marchenko Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (23), Sean Monahan (29)3–3
- P219:12Anders Lee Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Mike Reilly (2), Adam Boqvist (9)2–3
- P217:13Boone Jenner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (28)2–2
- P25:31Adam Fantilli Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (12), Elvis Merzlikins (1)1–2
- P118:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (25), Ryan Pulock (15)0–2
- P113:16Pierre Engvall Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (8), Anthony DeAngelo (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:16Pierre Engvall Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (8), Anthony DeAngelo (12)CBJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 69% +16NYI 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P25:31Adam Fantilli Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (12), Elvis Merzlikins (1)CBJ 1 – 2 NYI · CBJ 15% → 29% +14CBJ 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P217:13Boone Jenner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (28)CBJ 2 – 2 NYI · CBJ 26% → 48% +22CBJ 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P219:12Anders Lee Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Mike Reilly (2), Adam Boqvist (9)CBJ 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 75% +23NYI 52% → 75%+23 pts
- P312:56Kirill Marchenko Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (23), Sean Monahan (29)CBJ 3 – 3 NYI · CBJ 14% → 49% +35CBJ 14% → 49%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML CBJ +105 / NYI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- CBJ +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +46 Elo | NYI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–24 | Road vs home | 17–1721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–28 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 36–23 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–30 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–4 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.