Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Jackson BlakeAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal (19) Batted, assists: Jordan Martinook (20)1–4
- P216:10Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29), Jackson Blake (16)1–3
- P213:46Taylor Hall Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (15), Seth Jarvis (28)1–2
- P10:41Jackson Blake Goal (12) , assists: none1–1
- P10:23Josh Anderson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (15), Christian Dvorak (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:23Josh Anderson Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (15), Christian Dvorak (18)MTL 1 – 0 CAR · MTL 25% → 38% +13MTL 25% → 38%+13 pts
- P10:41Jackson Blake Goal (12) , assists: noneMTL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 62% → 75% +13CAR 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P213:46Taylor Hall Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (15), Seth Jarvis (28)MTL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 67% → 84% +17CAR 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P216:10Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (29), Jackson Blake (16)MTL 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 84% → 94% +10CAR 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P319:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal (19) Batted, assists: Jordan Martinook (20)MTL 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → 100% +0CAR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 75%
- ML MTL +280 / CAR -360
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 72.2%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -297
- MTL +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +6 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +165 Elo | CAR 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 74.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 27–93rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–30 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 40–31 | 29–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–3 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.