Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints3
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals3
- Peyton KrebsAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:14Tage Thompson Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P35:51Tage Thompson Goal (42) Backhand, assists: Jiri Kulich (8), Owen Power (33)3–5
- P31:59Jason Zucker Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (30), Peyton Krebs (17)3–4
- P218:31Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (29), Peyton Krebs (16)3–3
- P216:38Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (57), Mason Lohrei (28)3–2
- P210:49Alex Tuch Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (47), JJ Peterka (38)2–2
- P27:35Tage Thompson Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17), Bowen Byram (29)2–1
- P114:27Morgan Geekie Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (56)2–0
- P13:37Elias Lindholm Goal (16) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (55), Henri Jokiharju (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:35Tage Thompson Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17), Bowen Byram (29)BOS 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 23% → 40% +17BUF 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P210:49Alex Tuch Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (47), JJ Peterka (38)BOS 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 39% → 59% +21BUF 39% → 59%+21 pts
- P216:38Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (57), Mason Lohrei (28)BOS 3 – 2 BUF · BOS 42% → 65% +23BOS 42% → 65%+23 pts
- P218:31Rasmus Dahlin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (29), Peyton Krebs (16)BOS 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 34% → 58% +24BUF 34% → 58%+24 pts
- P31:59Jason Zucker Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (30), Peyton Krebs (17)BOS 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 57% → 80% +23BUF 57% → 80%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 63%
- ML BOS +160 / BUF -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -170
- BOS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BUF and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +52 Elo | BUF 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–27 | Road vs home | 20–1615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–42 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 45–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.