Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists2
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:03Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (21), Joel Armia (15)1–4
- P313:19Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52), Morgan Geekie (18)1–3
- P33:00Brendan Gallagher Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (20)0–3
- P214:24Cole Caufield Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (55), Juraj Slafkovský (31)0–2
- P20:40Christian Dvorak Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:40Christian Dvorak Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (16)BOS 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 63% → 78% +15MTL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P214:24Cole Caufield Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (55), Juraj Slafkovský (31)BOS 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 79% → 92% +12MTL 79% → 92%+12 pts
- P33:00Brendan Gallagher Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (20)BOS 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 94% → 99% +4MTL 94% → 99%+4 pts
- P313:19Elias Lindholm Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (52), Morgan Geekie (18)BOS 1 – 3 MTL · BOS <1% → 1% +1BOS <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P318:03Nick Suzuki Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (21), Joel Armia (15)BOS 1 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 66%
- ML BOS +180 / MTL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MTL -191
- BOS +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +47 Elo | MTL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 47.3%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–26 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–41 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 42–23 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–1 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.