Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists3
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Panthers- Seth JonesGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:16Brendan Gallagher Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (19)4–2
- P32:02Nick Suzuki Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (54), Juraj Slafkovský (29)3–2
- P216:24Seth Jones Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (48), Evan Rodrigues (15)2–2
- P211:27Juraj Slafkovský Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (54), Lane Hutson (53)2–1
- P113:16Sam Reinhart Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (47), Carter Verhaeghe (30)1–1
- P112:03Patrik Laine Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (52), Nick Suzuki (53)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:03Patrik Laine Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (52), Nick Suzuki (53)MTL 1 – 0 FLA · MTL 30% → 46% +15MTL 30% → 46%+15 pts
- P113:16Sam Reinhart Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (47), Carter Verhaeghe (30)MTL 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 69% +16FLA 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P211:27Juraj Slafkovský Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (54), Lane Hutson (53)MTL 2 – 1 FLA · MTL 35% → 55% +21MTL 35% → 55%+21 pts
- P216:24Seth Jones Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (48), Evan Rodrigues (15)MTL 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 41% → 64% +23FLA 41% → 64%+23 pts
- P32:02Nick Suzuki Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (54), Juraj Slafkovský (29)MTL 3 – 2 FLA · MTL 38% → 64% +26MTL 38% → 64%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 72%
- ML MTL +240 / FLA -300
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 70.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -255
- MTL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +12 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +151 Elo | FLA 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 71.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 54.4%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 23–128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–31 | 33–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 40–23 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 40–32 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.