Utah Hockey Club at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Sean DurziGoals1
- Barrett HaytonAssists1
- Sean DurziPoints1
Panthers- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:18Sam Bennett Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (27), Gustav Forsling (17)1–2
- P31:55Sean Durzi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (23)1–1
- P22:28Sam Bennett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (46), Mackie Samoskevich (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:28Sam Bennett Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (46), Mackie Samoskevich (14)UTAH 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 65% → 80% +15FLA 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P31:55Sean Durzi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (23)UTAH 1 – 1 FLA · UTAH 17% → 39% +22UTAH 17% → 39%+22 pts
- OT4:18Sam Bennett Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (27), Gustav Forsling (17)UTAH 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 52% → >99% +48FLA 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML UTAH +210 / FLA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 72.4%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -221
- UTAH +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +12 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +168 Elo | FLA 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 54.2%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–19 | Road vs home | 22–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–40 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 25–35 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 32–40 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.