Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Justin RobidasGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Justin RobidasPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals3
- Morgan GeekieAssists4
- David PastrnakPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:05Justin Robidas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (37)1–5
- P315:18David Pastrnak Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (22), Mason Lohrei (27)0–5
- P31:28David Pastrnak Goal (39) Batted, assists: Morgan Geekie (21), Elias Lindholm (27)0–4
- P210:14David Pastrnak Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (26), Morgan Geekie (20)0–3
- P119:47Elias Lindholm Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Morgan Geekie (19)0–2
- P118:49Morgan Geekie Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Nikita Zadorov (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:49Morgan Geekie Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Nikita Zadorov (14)CAR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 35% → 52% +17BOS 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P119:47Elias Lindholm Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Morgan Geekie (19)CAR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 53% → 70% +17BOS 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P210:14David Pastrnak Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (26), Morgan Geekie (20)CAR 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 76% → 89% +13BOS 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P31:28David Pastrnak Goal (39) Batted, assists: Morgan Geekie (21), Elias Lindholm (27)CAR 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 96% → >99% +3BOS 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P315:18David Pastrnak Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (22), Mason Lohrei (27)CAR 0 – 5 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 68%
- ML CAR -240 / BOS +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 57.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -212
- BOS +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 2.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −4 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +50 Elo | CAR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 48.0%27th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%25th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3216–20 | Road vs home | 19–1919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–39 | 34–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 33–36 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 32–43 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.