Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Gage GoncalvesGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Gage GoncalvesPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P35:07Jason Zucker Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (28), Rasmus Dahlin (46)2–2
- P213:01Gage Goncalves Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (24), Yanni Gourde (21)2–1
- P24:47Tage Thompson Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (16)1–1
- P21:35Brayden Point Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:35Brayden Point Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (79)TB 1 – 0 BUF · TB 62% → 77% +16TB 62% → 77%+16 pts
- P24:47Tage Thompson Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (16)TB 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 22% → 39% +16BUF 22% → 39%+16 pts
- P213:01Gage Goncalves Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (24), Yanni Gourde (21)TB 2 – 1 BUF · TB 60% → 79% +19TB 60% → 79%+19 pts
- P35:07Jason Zucker Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (28), Rasmus Dahlin (46)TB 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 18% → 43% +25BUF 18% → 43%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML TB -205 / BUF +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- TB: Elo 53.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- BUF +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 2.8 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −23 | −2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.7%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 16th of 3217–21 | Road vs home | 19–1615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–35 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–25 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 45–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–3 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.