Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Ridly GreigPoints2
Scoring summary
- P27:00Brandon Hagel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (20), Ryan McDonagh (26)1–2
- P25:17Jake Sanderson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (51), Ridly Greig (18)0–2
- P113:45Shane Pinto Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:45Shane Pinto Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (17)TB 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 42% → 59% +16OTT 42% → 59%+16 pts
- P25:17Jake Sanderson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (51), Ridly Greig (18)TB 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 62% → 79% +16OTT 62% → 79%+16 pts
- P27:00Brandon Hagel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (20), Ryan McDonagh (26)TB 1 – 2 OTT · TB 21% → 37% +17TB 21% → 37%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TB -155 / OTT +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 55.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -143
- OTT +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 2.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +38 Elo | TB 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.7%9th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 15th of 3217–20 | Road vs home | 21–1311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–34 | 30–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–24 | 11–32 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41 | 34–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.