Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
PenguinsScoring summary
- OT1:16Sidney Crosby Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (41), Rickard Rakell (32)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT1:16Sidney Crosby Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (41), Rickard Rakell (32)OTT 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 48% → 92% +44PIT 48% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML OTT -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −5 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 47.9%27th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%29th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–21 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–42 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–30 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–0 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.