Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Denton MateychukAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Ridly GreigPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:02Kirill Marchenko Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (52)2–3
- P29:17Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Ridly Greig (16)1–3
- P114:08Drake Batherson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (26), Artem Zub (9)1–2
- P17:55Boone Jenner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (51), Denton Mateychuk (6)1–1
- P17:24Ridly Greig Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (29), Shane Pinto (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:24Ridly Greig Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (29), Shane Pinto (13)CBJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 63% → 77% +13OTT 63% → 77%+13 pts
- P17:55Boone Jenner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (51), Denton Mateychuk (6)CBJ 1 – 1 OTT · CBJ 23% → 37% +13CBJ 23% → 37%+13 pts
- P114:08Drake Batherson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (26), Artem Zub (9)CBJ 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 63% → 77% +14OTT 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P29:17Jake Sanderson Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Shane Pinto (14), Ridly Greig (16)CBJ 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 78% → 90% +12OTT 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P311:02Kirill Marchenko Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (52)CBJ 2 – 3 OTT · CBJ 2% → 14% +12CBJ 2% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 64%
- ML CBJ +170 / OTT -200
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 64.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -180
- CBJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +104 Elo | OTT 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.7%9th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–24 | Road vs home | 20–1210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–29 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 37–23 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–30 | 33–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.