Vancouver Canucks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Aatu RatyGoals2
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists3
- Pius SuterPoints3
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals2
- Dante FabbroAssists2
- Boone JennerPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Backhand0–1
- P317:31Aatu Raty Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (6), Kiefer Sherwood (18)6–6
- P317:08Mathieu Olivier Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (14), Justin Danforth (10)5–6
- P316:46Boone Jenner Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Kirill Marchenko (38), Zach Werenski (50)5–5
- P37:03Denton Mateychuk Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (10), Adam Fantilli (22)5–4
- P36:42Aatu Raty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (5), Quinn Hughes (54)5–3
- P211:23Tyler Myers Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (17), Pius Suter (20)4–3
- P28:44Dante Fabbro Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (21), Mathieu Olivier (12)3–3
- P24:54Kirill Marchenko Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (30), Dante Fabbro (13)3–2
- P20:34Boone Jenner Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Denton Mateychuk (5), Erik Gudbranson (1)3–1
- P113:26Jake DeBrusk Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (22), Pius Suter (19)3–0
- P110:35Brock Boeser Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (53), Pius Suter (18)2–0
- P18:51Linus Karlsson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (16), Conor Garland (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:44Dante Fabbro Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (21), Mathieu Olivier (12)VAN 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 35% → 54% +20CBJ 35% → 54%+20 pts
- P211:23Tyler Myers Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (17), Pius Suter (20)VAN 4 – 3 CBJ · VAN 46% → 66% +21VAN 46% → 66%+21 pts
- P316:46Boone Jenner Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Kirill Marchenko (38), Zach Werenski (50)VAN 5 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 6% → 51% +45CBJ 6% → 51%+45 pts
- P317:08Mathieu Olivier Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (14), Justin Danforth (10)VAN 5 – 6 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 96% +44CBJ 51% → 96%+44 pts
- P317:31Aatu Raty Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (6), Kiefer Sherwood (18)VAN 6 – 6 CBJ · VAN 3% → 49% +45VAN 3% → 49%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 56%
- ML VAN +120 / CBJ -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 51.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -128
- VAN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +8 Elo | CBJ 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 10th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 20–1413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–39 | 42–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 37–23 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.