Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:29Nick Paul Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (27), Erik Cernak (18)4–1
- P210:41Victor Hedman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (78), Jake Guentzel (36)3–1
- P28:09Jake Guentzel Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (77), Brayden Point (37)2–1
- P110:57Bo Horvat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (16)1–1
- P18:46Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (30), Brayden Point (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:46Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (30), Brayden Point (36)TB 1 – 0 NYI · TB 59% → 73% +14TB 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P110:57Bo Horvat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (16)TB 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 26% → 41% +15NYI 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P28:09Jake Guentzel Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (77), Brayden Point (37)TB 2 – 1 NYI · TB 57% → 75% +18TB 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P210:41Victor Hedman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (78), Jake Guentzel (36)TB 3 – 1 NYI · TB 76% → 89% +13TB 76% → 89%+13 pts
- P316:29Nick Paul Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (27), Erik Cernak (18)TB 4 – 1 NYI · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -165 / NYI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 59.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- NYI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 17th of 3216–20 | Road vs home | 17–1926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–34 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–24 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 40–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.