Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:21Ryan McLeod Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (27), Connor Clifton (14)5–2
- P310:22Jake Sanderson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (13), Artem Zub (10)4–2
- P39:59Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P213:46Claude Giroux Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (4), Linus Ullmark (2)3–1
- P212:36Tage Thompson Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (37), Rasmus Dahlin (45)3–0
- P111:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (21), Mattias Samuelsson (10)2–0
- P18:38Alex Tuch Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (9), Jason Zucker (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:38Alex Tuch Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (9), Jason Zucker (30)BUF 1 – 0 OTT · BUF 37% → 52% +15BUF 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P111:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (21), Mattias Samuelsson (10)BUF 2 – 0 OTT · BUF 53% → 69% +16BUF 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P212:36Tage Thompson Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (37), Rasmus Dahlin (45)BUF 3 – 0 OTT · BUF 80% → 92% +12BUF 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P213:46Claude Giroux Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (4), Linus Ullmark (2)BUF 3 – 1 OTT · OTT 8% → 19% +12OTT 8% → 19%+12 pts
- P39:59Peyton Krebs Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 4 – 1 OTT · BUF 95% → >99% +5BUF 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 64%
- ML BUF +170 / OTT -200
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -180
- BUF +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +71 Elo | OTT 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–24 | Road vs home | 21–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–36 | 30–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 11–31 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 44–29 | 33–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–2 OTT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.