New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Juuso ParssinenAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Islanders- Hudson FaschingGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Hudson FaschingPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:51Artemi Panarin Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Juuso Parssinen (9)9–2
- P315:54Alexis Lafrenière Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (51), Juuso Parssinen (8)8–2
- P312:37Brett Berard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (14), K'Andre Miller (17)7–2
- P310:52Hudson Fasching Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (9), Pierre Engvall (7)6–2
- P37:54Brett Berard Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Matt Rempe (4), Sam Carrick (13)6–1
- P219:06Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (25), Adam Pelech (21)5–1
- P28:19Juuso Parssinen Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28)5–0
- P119:15Artemi Panarin Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (31), Adam Fox (50)4–0
- P113:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (50), Adam Fox (49)3–0
- P112:49Will Cuylle Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40), J.T. Miller (45)2–0
- P13:17Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (44), Will Cuylle (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:17Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (44), Will Cuylle (23)NYR 1 – 0 NYI · NYR 50% → 65% +15NYR 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P112:49Will Cuylle Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (40), J.T. Miller (45)NYR 2 – 0 NYI · NYR 66% → 79% +14NYR 66% → 79%+14 pts
- P113:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (50), Adam Fox (49)NYR 3 – 0 NYI · NYR 80% → 89% +10NYR 80% → 89%+10 pts
- P119:15Artemi Panarin Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (31), Adam Fox (50)NYR 4 – 0 NYI · NYR 91% → 96% +5NYR 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P28:19Juuso Parssinen Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (28)NYR 5 – 0 NYI · NYR 98% → >99% +2NYR 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 50%
- ML NYR -110 / NYI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 55.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYI -100
- NYR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.3 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +40 Elo | NYI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 13th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–48 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–35 | 11–27 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 25–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–41 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–1 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.