New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- K'Andre MillerAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Sharks- Cam LundGoals1
- Collin GrafAssists1
- Cam LundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:46Cam Lund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (6), Will Smith (24)6–1
- P316:53Vincent Trocheck Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (41)6–0
- P35:47Adam Fox Goal (9) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (40), K'Andre Miller (15)5–0
- P33:08Jonny Brodzinski Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Urho Vaakanainen (11)4–0
- P24:48Adam Fox Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brennan Othmann (2), Mika Zibanejad (35)3–0
- P113:58Artemi Panarin Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9), Vincent Trocheck (30)2–0
- P112:04Artemi Panarin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (14), Urho Vaakanainen (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:04Artemi Panarin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (14), Urho Vaakanainen (10)NYR 1 – 0 SJ · NYR 58% → 73% +15NYR 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P113:58Artemi Panarin Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (9), Vincent Trocheck (30)NYR 2 – 0 SJ · NYR 73% → 85% +12NYR 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P24:48Adam Fox Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Brennan Othmann (2), Mika Zibanejad (35)NYR 3 – 0 SJ · NYR 87% → 95% +8NYR 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P33:08Jonny Brodzinski Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (5), Urho Vaakanainen (11)NYR 4 – 0 SJ · NYR 99% → >99% +1NYR 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P35:47Adam Fox Goal (9) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (40), K'Andre Miller (15)NYR 5 – 0 SJ · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 59%
- ML NYR -155 / SJ +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 59.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NYR -143
- SJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −4 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +65 Elo | NYR 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.3%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–19 | Road vs home | 12–2432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–44 | 43–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–33 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 42–28 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.