Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Timothy LiljegrenAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Macklin Celebrini Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Will Smith Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00William Nylander Goal Backhand1–2
- P319:46William Nylander Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (67), Auston Matthews (38)5–5
- P319:01John Tavares Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (66)4–5
- P33:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (37), Macklin Celebrini (32)3–5
- P215:13Scott Laughton Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: David Kampf (7), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (25)3–4
- P213:18William Eklund Goal (17) Deflected, assists: none2–4
- P24:46Auston Matthews Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (24), Mitch Marner (65)2–3
- P21:39Alexander Wennberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (21), Timothy Liljegren (8)1–3
- P117:45Collin Graf Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (8)1–2
- P114:40William Nylander Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (23), John Tavares (34)1–1
- P17:50Tyler Toffoli Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Carlsson (2), Timothy Liljegren (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:46Auston Matthews Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (24), Mitch Marner (65)TOR 2 – 3 SJ · TOR 28% → 46% +18TOR 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P213:18William Eklund Goal (17) Deflected, assists: noneTOR 2 – 4 SJ · SJ 59% → 78% +19SJ 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P215:13Scott Laughton Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: David Kampf (7), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (25)TOR 3 – 4 SJ · TOR 21% → 40% +19TOR 21% → 40%+19 pts
- P33:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (37), Macklin Celebrini (32)TOR 3 – 5 SJ · SJ 66% → 87% +20SJ 66% → 87%+20 pts
- P319:46William Nylander Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (67), Auston Matthews (38)TOR 5 – 5 SJ · TOR <1% → 51% +51TOR <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 69%
- ML TOR -250 / SJ +210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.0%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -221
- SJ +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 2.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −3 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +115 Elo | TOR 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 46.2%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 4th of 3220–14 | Road vs home | 11–2432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–36 | 42–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 38–33 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.