New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Olen ZellwegerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:59Mason McTavish Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (28), Cutter Gauthier (22)4–5
- P318:15Olen Zellweger Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (13), Leo Carlsson (20)4–4
- P314:12Cutter Gauthier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Leo Carlsson (19), Jackson LaCombe (27)4–3
- P34:35Mika Zibanejad Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (47), Artemi Panarin (46)4–2
- P32:22Leo Carlsson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (11), Trevor Zegras (16)3–2
- P20:14Alexis Lafrenière Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (39)3–1
- P118:48J.T. Miller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (21), Alexis Lafrenière (27)2–1
- P116:55Alex Killorn Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (18)1–1
- P13:20Adam Fox Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (45), K'Andre Miller (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:55Alex Killorn Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (18)NYR 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 26% → 42% +16ANA 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P118:48J.T. Miller Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Will Cuylle (21), Alexis Lafrenière (27)NYR 2 – 1 ANA · NYR 58% → 74% +16NYR 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P32:22Leo Carlsson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (11), Trevor Zegras (16)NYR 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 7% → 21% +14ANA 7% → 21%+14 pts
- P318:15Olen Zellweger Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (13), Leo Carlsson (20)NYR 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 1% → 48% +47ANA 1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT0:59Mason McTavish Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (28), Cutter Gauthier (22)NYR 4 – 5 ANA · ANA 47% → 91% +44ANA 47% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 60%
- ML NYR -165 / ANA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 54.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -149
- ANA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 2.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +31 Elo | NYR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.2%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3217–18 | Road vs home | 17–1823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–43 | 49–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 45–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–40 | 28–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.