Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Islanders- Marc GatcombGoals2
- Kyle MacLeanAssists2
- Marc GatcombPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:20Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Poke, assists: none1–4
- P210:26Marc Gatcomb Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (2), Kyle MacLean (7)1–3
- P27:26Alex Ovechkin Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (30), Dylan Strome (51)1–2
- P19:00Marc Gatcomb Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kyle MacLean (6), Alexander Romanov (15)0–2
- P17:06Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (22), Anders Lee (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Bo Horvat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (22), Anders Lee (24)WSH 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 42% → 58% +15NYI 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P19:00Marc Gatcomb Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kyle MacLean (6), Alexander Romanov (15)WSH 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 58% → 73% +14NYI 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P27:26Alex Ovechkin Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (30), Dylan Strome (51)WSH 1 – 2 NYI · WSH 20% → 36% +16WSH 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P210:26Marc Gatcomb Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Martin (2), Kyle MacLean (7)WSH 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 65% → 82% +17NYI 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P34:20Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Poke, assists: noneWSH 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 91% → 98% +7NYI 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML WSH -150 / NYI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -138
- NYI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −3 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +42 Elo | WSH 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.5%11th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 1st of 3224–13 | Road vs home | 18–2026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–32 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 24–8 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.