Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Oliver MooreAssists2
- Frank NazarPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists3
- John CarlsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:24Ryan Leonard Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none3–5
- P36:13Alex Ovechkin Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (45), Andrew Mangiapane (13)3–4
- P33:46Dylan Strome Goal (25) , assists: none3–3
- P27:19Philipp Kurashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Landon Slaggert (3), Oliver Moore (2)3–2
- P27:09Martin Fehérváry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (30), John Carlson (44)2–2
- P20:31Frank Nazar Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (1), Patrick Maroon (14)2–1
- P113:55Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Landon Slaggert (2), Frank Nazar (12)1–1
- P13:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (40) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (50), John Carlson (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:31Frank Nazar Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (1), Patrick Maroon (14)CHI 2 – 1 WSH · CHI 28% → 44% +17CHI 28% → 44%+17 pts
- P27:09Martin Fehérváry Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (30), John Carlson (44)CHI 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 70% +19WSH 52% → 70%+19 pts
- P27:19Philipp Kurashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Landon Slaggert (3), Oliver Moore (2)CHI 3 – 2 WSH · CHI 30% → 48% +19CHI 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P33:46Dylan Strome Goal (25) , assists: noneCHI 3 – 3 WSH · WSH 37% → 65% +27WSH 37% → 65%+27 pts
- P36:13Alex Ovechkin Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (45), Andrew Mangiapane (13)CHI 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 64% → 87% +23WSH 64% → 87%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 77%
- ML CHI +310 / WSH -400
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 75.0%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -328
- CHI +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −10 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +191 Elo | WSH 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 78.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–29 | Road vs home | 24–149th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 44–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 20–23 |
| Underdog | 37–34 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 39–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.