Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Alexander KerfootGoals1
- Alexander KerfootAssists2
- Alexander KerfootPoints3
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:54Logan Cooley Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (55), Dylan Guenther (25)5–2
- P310:57Kailer Yamamoto Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (12)4–2
- P217:08Alexander Kerfoot Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (33), John Marino (12)3–2
- P216:37Mikhail Sergachev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (11), Lawson Crouse (6)2–2
- P214:55Ryan Donato Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38)1–2
- P211:02Joseph Veleno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (5), Nick Foligno (18)1–1
- P28:21Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (11), Kevin Stenlund (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:21Nick DeSimone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (11), Kevin Stenlund (10)UTAH 1 – 0 CHI · UTAH 62% → 79% +17UTAH 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P211:02Joseph Veleno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (5), Nick Foligno (18)UTAH 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 21% → 38% +18CHI 21% → 38%+18 pts
- P214:55Ryan Donato Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (38)UTAH 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 39% → 61% +22CHI 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P216:37Mikhail Sergachev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (11), Lawson Crouse (6)UTAH 2 – 2 CHI · UTAH 37% → 60% +23UTAH 37% → 60%+23 pts
- P217:08Alexander Kerfoot Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (33), John Marino (12)UTAH 3 – 2 CHI · UTAH 60% → 80% +20UTAH 60% → 80%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 66%
- ML UTAH -225 / CHI +185
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 59.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -197
- CHI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.7 – 2.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −17 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +69 Elo | UTAH 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 43.9%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3217–20 | Road vs home | 14–2331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–40 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41 | 40–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.