Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals2
- William KarlssonAssists3
- William KarlssonPoints3
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals3
- Ilya MikheyevAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:16Brett Howden Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (46)5–3
- P316:49Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (29), William Karlsson (17)4–3
- P32:06Victor Olofsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (23), William Karlsson (16)3–3
- P216:29Ryan Donato Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (14), Connor Bedard (37)2–3
- P216:14Ryan Donato Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Joseph Veleno (7), Wyatt Kaiser (4)2–2
- P27:34Victor Olofsson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (15), Keegan Kolesar (15)2–1
- P26:41Mark Stone Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (26), Jack Eichel (65)1–1
- P116:15Ryan Donato Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethan Del Mastro (3), Ilya Mikheyev (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:41Mark Stone Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (26), Jack Eichel (65)VGK 1 – 1 CHI · VGK 50% → 68% +19VGK 50% → 68%+19 pts
- P216:14Ryan Donato Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Joseph Veleno (7), Wyatt Kaiser (4)VGK 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 16% → 34% +18CHI 16% → 34%+18 pts
- P216:29Ryan Donato Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (14), Connor Bedard (37)VGK 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 34% → 57% +23CHI 34% → 57%+23 pts
- P32:06Victor Olofsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (23), William Karlsson (16)VGK 3 – 3 CHI · VGK 38% → 64% +26VGK 38% → 64%+26 pts
- P316:49Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (29), William Karlsson (17)VGK 4 – 3 CHI · VGK 56% → 96% +40VGK 56% → 96%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 74%
- ML VGK -340 / CHI +270
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 4.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +127 Elo | VGK 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 70.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 43.9%32nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 13th of 3216–18 | Road vs home | 14–2231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–30 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–28 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 36–32 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.