New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists3
- Luke HughesPoints3
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:47Stefan Noesen Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (29)5–3
- P317:10Frank Nazar Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (30), Artyom Levshunov (4)4–3
- P211:01Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (32), Jesper Bratt (64)4–2
- P25:26Ilya Mikheyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (41), Nick Foligno (17)3–2
- P23:14Ondrej Palat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (63)3–1
- P19:06Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Donato (29), Artyom Levshunov (3)2–1
- P16:50Dawson Mercer Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (31), Nico Hischier (28)2–0
- P16:23Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (30), Tomas Tatar (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Nathan Bastian Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (30), Tomas Tatar (10)NJ 1 – 0 CHI · NJ 65% → 78% +13NJ 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P19:06Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Donato (29), Artyom Levshunov (3)NJ 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 12% → 22% +10CHI 12% → 22%+10 pts
- P23:14Ondrej Palat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (63)NJ 3 – 1 CHI · NJ 78% → 89% +11NJ 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P25:26Ilya Mikheyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (41), Nick Foligno (17)NJ 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 10% → 22% +11CHI 10% → 22%+11 pts
- P211:01Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (32), Jesper Bratt (64)NJ 4 – 2 CHI · NJ 79% → 91% +12NJ 79% → 91%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 66%
- ML NJ -215 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 60.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NJ -191
- CHI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +71 Elo | NJ 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 43.8%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219–17 | Road vs home | 14–2131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–43 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders | 27–45 | 38–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.