Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor MurphyGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Connor MurphyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Artturi Lehkonen Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Teuvo Teravainen Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P319:49Martin Necas Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Cale Makar (58)2–2
- P39:17Cale Makar Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (81), Valeri Nichushkin (12)1–2
- P28:17Connor Murphy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Ethan Del Mastro (4)0–2
- P114:39Ilya Mikheyev Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (11), Connor Murphy (17)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:39Ilya Mikheyev Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (11), Connor Murphy (17)COL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 26% → 41% +15CHI 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P28:17Connor Murphy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Ethan Del Mastro (4)COL 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 48% → 68% +19CHI 48% → 68%+19 pts
- P39:17Cale Makar Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (81), Valeri Nichushkin (12)COL 1 – 2 CHI · COL 8% → 29% +21COL 8% → 29%+21 pts
- P319:49Martin Necas Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Brock Nelson (29), Cale Makar (58)COL 2 – 2 CHI · COL <1% → 52% +52COL <1% → 52%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 77%
- ML COL -410 / CHI +320
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- COL: Elo 70.0%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -338
- CHI +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +147 Elo | COL 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 6th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 14–2431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–42 | 37–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 36–34 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.