Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Ryan LombergGoals1
- Ryan LombergAssists1
- Ryan LombergPoints2
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P311:29Adam Klapka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (8), Kevin Rooney (5)2–2
- P310:57Ryan Lomberg Goal (2) Poke, assists: Adam Klapka (1), MacKenzie Weegar (35)1–2
- P27:59Logan O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (11)0–2
- P116:31Cale Makar Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (80), Devon Toews (31)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:31Cale Makar Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (80), Devon Toews (31)CGY 0 – 1 COL · COL 68% → 81% +13COL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P27:59Logan O'Connor Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (11)CGY 0 – 2 COL · COL 82% → 92% +10COL 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P310:57Ryan Lomberg Goal (2) Poke, assists: Adam Klapka (1), MacKenzie Weegar (35)CGY 1 – 2 COL · CGY 2% → 12% +11CGY 2% → 12%+11 pts
- P311:29Adam Klapka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (8), Kevin Rooney (5)CGY 2 – 2 COL · CGY 12% → 42% +30CGY 12% → 42%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 71%
- ML CGY +230 / COL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- COL: Elo 69.8%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -243
- CGY +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 3.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +6 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +145 Elo | COL 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 72.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 53.4%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 25–137th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–36 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 26–35 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 30–42 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–5 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.