Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Nazem Kadri Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (19)3–4
- P318:30Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (23), Jaden Schwartz (22)3–3
- P315:49Rasmus Andersson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (30)2–3
- P313:42Nazem Kadri Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (29), Morgan Frost (19)2–2
- P218:42Tye Kartye Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (23)2–1
- P210:25Jaden Schwartz Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (32), Andre Burakovsky (21)1–1
- P110:58Adam Klapka Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Rooney (4), Daniil Miromanov (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:42Tye Kartye Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (23)SEA 2 – 1 CGY · SEA 46% → 70% +24SEA 46% → 70%+24 pts
- P313:42Nazem Kadri Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (29), Morgan Frost (19)SEA 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 14% → 52% +38CGY 14% → 52%+38 pts
- P315:49Rasmus Andersson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (30)SEA 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 52% → 92% +41CGY 52% → 92%+41 pts
- P318:30Jordan Eberle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (23), Jaden Schwartz (22)SEA 3 – 3 CGY · SEA <1% → 49% +48SEA <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:58Nazem Kadri Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (19)SEA 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 51% → >99% +49CGY 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 56%
- ML SEA +120 / CGY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CGY: Elo 57.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +50 Elo | CGY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3214–21 | Road vs home | 18–1615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–35 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–35 | 28–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–3 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.