Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Andre BurakovskyGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals3
- Darnell NurseAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:57Jaden Schwartz Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (31), Vince Dunn (22)4–5
- P317:43Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (30)3–5
- P35:57Andre Burakovsky Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (30)3–4
- P218:11Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (17), Evan Bouchard (42)2–4
- P212:31Jeff Skinner Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (17), Mattias Ekholm (23)2–3
- P27:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jani Nyman (2)2–2
- P23:48Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (6), Darnell Nurse (23)1–2
- P115:49Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (22), Jani Nyman (1)1–1
- P114:30Adam Henrique Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (22), Darnell Nurse (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:30Adam Henrique Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (22), Darnell Nurse (22)SEA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 73% +15EDM 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P115:49Kaapo Kakko Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (22), Jani Nyman (1)SEA 1 – 1 EDM · SEA 27% → 43% +16SEA 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P23:48Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (6), Darnell Nurse (23)SEA 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 56% → 74% +17EDM 56% → 74%+17 pts
- P27:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jani Nyman (2)SEA 2 – 2 EDM · SEA 26% → 44% +18SEA 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P212:31Jeff Skinner Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (17), Mattias Ekholm (23)SEA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 56% → 75% +20EDM 56% → 75%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML SEA +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 66.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +119 Elo | EDM 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 67.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.27th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3214–20 | Road vs home | 21–1412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–35 | 25–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 18–42 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–6 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.