Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:11Matt Duchene Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (21), Mikael Granlund (41)5–2
- P313:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (36), Jason Robertson (41)4–2
- P30:16Nazem Kadri Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (31), Morgan Frost (20)3–2
- P214:11Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (20), Matt Duchene (45)3–1
- P212:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P28:12Nazem Kadri Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (20), Connor Zary (14)1–1
- P17:09Roope Hintz Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (48), Jason Robertson (40)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:09Roope Hintz Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (48), Jason Robertson (40)DAL 1 – 0 CGY · DAL 54% → 69% +15DAL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P28:12Nazem Kadri Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (20), Connor Zary (14)DAL 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 28% → 47% +19CGY 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P212:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 2 – 1 CGY · DAL 53% → 73% +20DAL 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P214:11Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (20), Matt Duchene (45)DAL 3 – 1 CGY · DAL 73% → 88% +15DAL 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P30:16Nazem Kadri Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (31), Morgan Frost (20)DAL 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 9% → 24% +15CGY 9% → 24%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / CGY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +29 Elo | DAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219–15 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–38 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–33 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–39 | 29–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.