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Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, truTV, HBO Max

Away

Stars

46-21-4

4–3

at

Home

Oilers

41-25-5

DAL 56%EDM 44%

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Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored DAL favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P318:35Zach Hyman Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (44), Mattias Ekholm (24)4–3
  • P313:54Adam Henrique Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (9), Evan Bouchard (43)4–2
  • P39:30Corey Perry Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (31), Adam Henrique (10)4–1
  • P215:30Jason Robertson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (32), Roope Hintz (35)4–0
  • P210:42Jason Robertson Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (34)3–0
  • P25:01Jason Robertson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (33), Mikko Rantanen (47)2–0
  • P114:26Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (29), Thomas Harley (31)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:26Wyatt Johnston Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (29), Thomas Harley (31)DAL 1 – 0 EDM · DAL 55% → 71% +16
  2. P25:01Jason Robertson Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (33), Mikko Rantanen (47)DAL 2 – 0 EDM · DAL 72% → 86% +13
  3. P210:42Jason Robertson Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (34)DAL 3 – 0 EDM · DAL 88% → 95% +8
  4. P215:30Jason Robertson Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (32), Roope Hintz (35)DAL 4 – 0 EDM · DAL 97% → >99% +3
  5. P313:54Adam Henrique Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (9), Evan Bouchard (43)DAL 4 – 2 EDM · EDM <1% → <1% +1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 56%

LeanHit
DAL 56%EDM 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
DAL 56%
ML DAL -140 / EDM +120
Pre-line forecast
DAL 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 49%
Ratings vs. market
−7.6 pts
DAL: Elo 48.6%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
DAL -128
EDM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.4 – 3.1 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALEDMWhy
Team rating15771557Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−3DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +10 EloEDM 51.4%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 52.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatEDM
6th of 323.4Goals scored3.37th of 32
4th of 322.6Goals allowed2.913th of 32
4th of 32+0.8Margin+0.410th of 32
8th of 3251.0%Shot share54.1%3rd of 32
4th of 3291.1%Save percentage89.7%20th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 106–48th of 32
7th of 3218–15Road vs home22–1412th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALEDM
Puck line33–3725–45
Last 105–53–7
Favorite26–3218–43
Underdog7–57–2
Overs–unders31–3932–38
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 5–6 EDM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.