Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Brayden PachalGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Brayden PachalPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Darnell NurseAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:25Leon Draisaitl Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (11)2–3
- P316:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (50) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (45), Darnell Nurse (25)2–2
- P37:55Brayden Pachal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (28)2–1
- P216:20Viktor Arvidsson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (53), Darnell Nurse (24)1–1
- P14:32Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), Brayden Pachal (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:32Yegor Sharangovich Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (27), Brayden Pachal (6)CGY 1 – 0 EDM · CGY 39% → 54% +15CGY 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P216:20Viktor Arvidsson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (53), Darnell Nurse (24)CGY 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 34% → 57% +23EDM 34% → 57%+23 pts
- P37:55Brayden Pachal Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (28)CGY 2 – 1 EDM · CGY 45% → 75% +30CGY 45% → 75%+30 pts
- P316:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (50) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (45), Darnell Nurse (25)CGY 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 7% → 53% +46EDM 7% → 53%+46 pts
- OT2:25Leon Draisaitl Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (11)CGY 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 52% → 97% +44EDM 52% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 61%
- ML CGY +150 / EDM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +107 Elo | EDM 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 22–1513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–36 | 26–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 18–44 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–41 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–4 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.