Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals2
- Adam LarssonAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:53Jared McCann Goal (18) Batted, assists: Mikey Eyssimont (7), Adam Larsson (18)1–6
- P34:59Zach Hyman Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P212:41Andre Burakovsky Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (20)0–5
- P211:06Matty Beniers Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (27), Jani Nyman (3)0–4
- P210:50Jani Nyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (17), Vince Dunn (24)0–3
- P23:24Jaden Schwartz Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P21:18Jaden Schwartz Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (22), Jared McCann (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:18Jaden Schwartz Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Andre Burakovsky (22), Jared McCann (33)EDM 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 48% → 66% +18SEA 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P23:24Jaden Schwartz Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 66% → 81% +15SEA 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P210:50Jani Nyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (17), Vince Dunn (24)EDM 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 84% → 94% +9SEA 84% → 94%+9 pts
- P211:06Matty Beniers Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (27), Jani Nyman (3)EDM 0 – 4 SEA · SEA 94% → 98% +4SEA 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P212:41Andre Burakovsky Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (20)EDM 0 – 5 SEA · SEA 98% → >99% +1SEA 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 52%
- ML EDM -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +30 Elo | EDM 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.2% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219–15 | Road vs home | 16–2028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–45 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–38 | 37–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 7–0 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.