Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Islanders- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:36Noah Dobson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (13)1–3
- P24:02Simon Holmstrom Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (24), Ryan Pulock (17)1–2
- P22:18Casey Cizikas Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (28), Pierre Engvall (6)1–1
- P21:42Mats Zuccarello Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (22)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:42Mats Zuccarello Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (22)MIN 1 – 0 NYI · MIN 48% → 66% +18MIN 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P22:18Casey Cizikas Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (28), Pierre Engvall (6)MIN 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 34% → 52% +18NYI 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P24:02Simon Holmstrom Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (24), Ryan Pulock (17)MIN 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 52% → 70% +18NYI 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P33:36Noah Dobson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (13)MIN 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 77% → 92% +16NYI 77% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 52%
- ML MIN +100 / NYI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 50.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +1 Elo | NYI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 17–2027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–37 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 24–14 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.