New Jersey Devils at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals3
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints3
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:46Tomas Tatar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (13), Justin Dowling (4)5–2
- P314:50Nico Hischier Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (33), Jesper Bratt (66)4–2
- P35:22Ryan Hartman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (12), Zach Bogosian (12)3–2
- P33:13Nico Hischier Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P116:31Marcus Foligno Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (23), Gustav Nyquist (15)2–1
- P15:46Paul Cotter Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (19), Nolan Foote (1)2–0
- P10:29Nico Hischier Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (65), Stefan Noesen (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:29Nico Hischier Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (65), Stefan Noesen (18)NJ 1 – 0 MIN · NJ 48% → 62% +14NJ 48% → 62%+14 pts
- P15:46Paul Cotter Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (19), Nolan Foote (1)NJ 2 – 0 MIN · NJ 63% → 76% +13NJ 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P116:31Marcus Foligno Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (23), Gustav Nyquist (15)NJ 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 21% → 35% +14MIN 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P33:13Nico Hischier Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 1 MIN · NJ 75% → 91% +17NJ 75% → 91%+17 pts
- P35:22Ryan Hartman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (12), Zach Bogosian (12)NJ 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 7% → 24% +16MIN 7% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML NJ +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- NJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 47.7%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–18 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–44 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–46 | 33–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.