New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:18Mark Scheifele Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (51)0–4
- P215:45Alex Iafallo Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (38), Josh Morrissey (44)0–3
- P11:52David Gustafsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (6), Brandon Tanev (11)0–2
- P10:58Alex Iafallo Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (50), Mark Scheifele (44)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:58Alex Iafallo Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (50), Mark Scheifele (44)NJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 66% → 78% +12WPG 66% → 78%+12 pts
- P11:52David Gustafsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (6), Brandon Tanev (11)NJ 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 78% → 87% +9WPG 78% → 87%+9 pts
- P215:45Alex Iafallo Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (38), Josh Morrissey (44)NJ 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 92% → 98% +6WPG 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P219:18Mark Scheifele Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (51)NJ 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 98% → >99% +1WPG 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 66%
- ML NJ +180 / WPG -220
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.5%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -192
- NJ +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +8 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +127 Elo | WPG 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 50.8%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–17 | Road vs home | 26–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–43 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 26–29 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–45 | 34–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.