Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Vinnie HinostrozaGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Vinnie HinostrozaPoints1
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand0–2
- SO0:00Paul Cotter Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P317:52Matt Boldy Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Marcus Foligno (13)2–2
- P39:12Nico Hischier Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (19), Luke Hughes (34)1–2
- P32:57Vincent Hinostroza Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Jon Merrill (4)1–1
- P112:30Luke Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (12), Justin Dowling (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:30Luke Hughes Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (12), Justin Dowling (5)MIN 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 56% → 72% +15NJ 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P32:57Vincent Hinostroza Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (12), Jon Merrill (4)MIN 1 – 1 NJ · MIN 22% → 46% +24MIN 22% → 46%+24 pts
- P39:12Nico Hischier Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Stefan Noesen (19), Luke Hughes (34)MIN 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 83% +30NJ 53% → 83%+30 pts
- P317:52Matt Boldy Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Marcus Foligno (13)MIN 2 – 2 NJ · MIN 2% → 49% +46MIN 2% → 49%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML MIN +125 / NJ -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +46 Elo | NJ 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–14 | Road vs home | 16–1826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–37 | 31–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 24–37 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 29–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–3 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.