Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints3
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:24Vincent Trocheck Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (48), K'Andre Miller (16)4–5
- P30:22Marco Rossi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (39)4–4
- P218:56Artemi Panarin Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P29:50Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (16), Brock Faber (18)3–3
- P27:21Chris Kreider Goal (20) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P22:51K'Andre Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (42), Will Borgen (10)2–2
- P115:00Brock Faber Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (21), Frederick Gaudreau (17)2–1
- P112:45Braden Schneider Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (12), Artemi Panarin (47)1–1
- P19:00Gustav Nyquist Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Marcus Johansson (20), Mats Zuccarello (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:51K'Andre Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (42), Will Borgen (10)MIN 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 39% → 58% +18NYR 39% → 58%+18 pts
- P29:50Marcus Johansson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (16), Brock Faber (18)MIN 3 – 3 NYR · MIN 24% → 43% +19MIN 24% → 43%+19 pts
- P218:56Artemi Panarin Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 56% → 78% +22NYR 56% → 78%+22 pts
- P30:22Marco Rossi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (39)MIN 4 – 4 NYR · MIN 22% → 44% +23MIN 22% → 44%+23 pts
- OT0:24Vincent Trocheck Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (48), K'Andre Miller (16)MIN 4 – 5 NYR · NYR 53% → 92% +39NYR 53% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 60%
- ML MIN +140 / NYR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -149
- MIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +51 Elo | NYR 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.6%25th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 17–2026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 30–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 19–33 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 34–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.