Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals3
- Nick SeelerAssists3
- Tyson FoersterPoints3
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Jonathan QuickAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:47Owen Tippett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (27), Nick Seeler (16)8–5
- P319:05Tyson Foerster Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (27), Nick Seeler (15)7–5
- P318:10Chris Kreider Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (39), Adam Fox (48)6–5
- P315:33Tyson Foerster Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (22), Nick Seeler (14)6–4
- P311:55Sean Couturier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (35), Travis Konecny (51)5–4
- P38:01Jakob Pelletier Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Owen Tippett (21), Ryan Poehling (17)4–4
- P37:01J.T. Miller Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (38), Will Cuylle (22)3–4
- P35:38Jonny Brodzinski Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (14), Braden Schneider (15)3–3
- P33:05Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (19), Bobby Brink (26)3–2
- P218:32Artemi Panarin Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (37), Urho Vaakanainen (13)2–2
- P216:43Garnet Hathaway Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (16)2–1
- P29:03Tyson Foerster Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (18)1–1
- P111:33Vincent Trocheck Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (36), Jonathan Quick (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:05Travis Sanheim Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (19), Bobby Brink (26)PHI 3 – 2 NYR · PHI 43% → 70% +26PHI 43% → 70%+26 pts
- P35:38Jonny Brodzinski Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (14), Braden Schneider (15)PHI 3 – 3 NYR · NYR 28% → 56% +28NYR 28% → 56%+28 pts
- P37:01J.T. Miller Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (38), Will Cuylle (22)PHI 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 56% → 82% +27NYR 56% → 82%+27 pts
- P38:01Jakob Pelletier Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Owen Tippett (21), Ryan Poehling (17)PHI 4 – 4 NYR · PHI 17% → 44% +27PHI 17% → 44%+27 pts
- P311:55Sean Couturier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (35), Travis Konecny (51)PHI 5 – 4 NYR · PHI 45% → 81% +36PHI 45% → 81%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 62%
- ML PHI +155 / NYR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 64.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +106 Elo | NYR 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–26 | Road vs home | 18–2127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–40 | 30–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 19–34 |
| Underdog | 29–25 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.