Nashville Predators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Zachary L'HeureuxGoals1
- Michael McCarronAssists1
- Zachary L'HeureuxPoints1
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P213:48Jamie Drysdale Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (34), Travis Konecny (49)1–2
- P213:14Zachary L'Heureux Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (8), Brady Skjei (18)1–1
- P28:50Ryan Poehling Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (48), Matvei Michkov (33)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:50Ryan Poehling Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (48), Matvei Michkov (33)NSH 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 53% → 72% +19PHI 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P213:14Zachary L'Heureux Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael McCarron (8), Brady Skjei (18)NSH 1 – 1 PHI · NSH 27% → 47% +20NSH 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P213:48Jamie Drysdale Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (34), Travis Konecny (49)NSH 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 53% → 73% +21PHI 53% → 73%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML NSH +110 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −11 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 30th of 329–27 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–44 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders | 28–45 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.